Based on climate outlook for msimu rains (November, 2017 – April, 2018) released by Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) on 17th October, the existed and expected climate systems indicated an elevated chance of normal to above normal rains over most parts of unimodal areas of Tanzania. However, occasional heavy rains are also expected over these areas especially towards the month of January 2018. The rainfall season was expected to start between the month of November and December 2017.
Msimu rains are specific for the Western, Central, South-western highlands, Southern regions and Southern coast. These regions experience unimodal rainfall pattern, which starts in November and ends between April and May of the following year. Rains over these areas are expected to be normal to above normal over most areas.
Rains are likely to be mainly normal to above normal over most parts of Dodoma, Singida, Kigoma, Tabora, Rukwa, Katavi, Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Iringa, Ruvuma, southern sector of Morogoro, Lindi and Mtwara regions.
In regions of Kigoma, Tabora, Rukwa, Katavi, Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Iringa, Lindi, Mtwara and southern sector of Morogoro regions rains are expected to start in the first week of November, while over Dodoma and Singida regions rains are expected to start in December, 2017.
The South-eastern parts of the unimodal areas (Mtwara and Lindi regions) are likely to experience poor rainfall distribution during the months of January and February, 2018 when the rainfall making mechanism is expected to be further South of the country. Rains are expected to cease during the fourth week of April 2018 over much of the unimodal areas.
Expected impacts include incidences of short periods of heavy rainfall that may lead into floods and associated impacts to societies over few areas. There is a likelihood of outbreak of water borne diseases especially in areas with poor sewage systems over urban areas and in areas with shortage of safe water.
In the agriculture sector, soil moisture levels for crops production as well as pasture production for livestock and wildlife is expected to improve. Fish farmers are advised to practice aquaculture and practice sustainable fishing. Both farmers and livestock keepers are advised to harvest rainwater for immediate and future use.
You can also download the seasonal weather outlook report here.